A Ramezani
15 December 2004, Al-Monitor
Three weeks after nuclear talks in Vienna failed to put an end to the 12-year nuclear standoff between Iran and the West, forex and the stock and gold markets in Tehran are still nosediving, with Iran's monetary officials struggling to control the negative sentiment.
The rial lost over 3,200 against the dollar and traded at 35,600 on Nov. 30, its lowest value against the dollar since President Hassan Rouhani took office more than a year ago. The rial's depreciation came six days after Iran and the six world powers (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States), known as the P5+1, agreed to extend talks, a decision that means seven more months of economic sanctions.
Although the dollar retreated somewhat in the following days, it was still traded at 34,270 rials Dec. 11 on Ferdowsi Street, the main forex market in Tehran. The rate is still much higher than the 32,380 rials Nov. 23, a day before the talks failed to reach a comprehensive deal, which was widely expected in Iran.
TEDPIX, the Tehran Stock Exchange’s main index, also dropped drastically on Nov. 25 as skeptical investors flocked to sell their stocks. The bearish sentiment has been dominant in the market since. The index has been falling from 75,949 on Nov. 24 to 71,043 on Dec. 10, the lowest level in five months. Market experts do not have any better hope for the coming days. So far, the Tehran Stock Exchange has plunged over the last three weeks by 1.5% to 3%.
The Azadi bullion coin has also surged as safe haven demands increased in Tehran. The price of the Azadi hit 9.8 million rials on Dec. 11, 64,000 rials higher than the 9.14 million rials on Nov. 23.
In an immediate reaction on the extension of the nuclear talks, Rouhani hailed it as “victorious” for Iranians, insisting that the extension did not mean failure since world powers know now that "pressure and sanctions against Iran were futile."
Administration officials later echoed his remarks, as the rial was continuing to depreciate against all major foreign currencies. “Frenzied behavior” was blamed by Minister of Economy Ali Tayebnia for the bearish trend of the financial and monetary markets.
Surprisingly, this time the moderates obtained a staunch conservative supporter. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech a couple of days after Iran and the P5+1 agreed to extend talks that he was "not in opposition to the extension of the talks.” His backing comes as conservatives, of course not the ayatollah himself, have been criticizing the administration in the last year for taking a "soft" stance in talks with the West, namely the United States.
However, Ayatollah Khamenei underlined in his speech that the government does have an economic response for the crippling sanctions, even if they will persist. That response, he insisted, is the “economic resistance” plan that he vowed would bear fruit in “the long run.”
Ayatollah Khamenei’s pressure on “resistance” implies that he admits that sanctions bite, but Iranians, as he expects, must remain resistant. Yet, the government does not want to announce publicly that the continuation of sanctions has negatively affected the market sentiment.
On the other hand, a new group of economists, mainly loyal to the moderate government, has insistently backed the idea through news media that it was the OPEC’s decision that pushed markets into the red.
Coincidentally, at the same time as the nuclear talks, OPEC was meeting in Vienna where the member countries decided to maintain their output, despite Iran's opposition.
A number of economists in Tehran now argue that with OPEC refusing to cut the production of 30 million barrels a day, the oil price will probably plunge even further in the coming months.
Among those blaming the recent oil price decline for the free fall of Iranian markets is Mohammad Tabibian, a Tehran-based economist, who believes the OPEC's decision has made the public think that oil revenues will plunge next year.
“The fact that oil would plunge further frightened investors and triggered the demand for major foreign currencies and for the dollar in particular,” said another economist, who did not want to be identified, in an interview with Al-Monitor.
“People fear that government revenue from oil exports would drop further and therefore foreign currencies might be in short supply in the Iranian market,” he added.
The latter issue, however, is not widely discussed by the public. A currency dealer on Ferdowsi Street told Al-Monitor that the extension of talks “means sanctions will continue to hurt us for another seven months."
"That was not what we expected,” he said, though he admitted that oil prices could also play a role in the downward trend. “We expected a real deal” on Nov. 24."
He added, "It’s disappointing that we can’t transfer our money into the country” as a result of financial sanctions having been imposed on Iran since 2012.
It appears that professional dealers and traders are more concerned about sanctions and the future of the lengthy nuclear talks than the OPEC’s decision, whose immediate impact on markets is hardly believed to be a major issue.
Given the fact that ordinary people are so sensitive about the value of the dollar, monetary officials have come with ideas to help avoid rapid depreciation of the rial against the dollar in the future.
A research center of the Central Bank of Iran recently released a study urging the government to let the rial depreciate gradually and in line with an increase in inflation, which is hovering at 18% right now.
Three researchers with the Monetary and Banking Research Institute wrote in their report that the Central Bank of Iran needs "to control the rial's flux, and not its rate."
The researchers argue that their suggestion could help avoid volatility in the forex market, similar to what happened in recent weeks, and pave the way for officials to create a single-rate currency regime, a plan expected to be implemented in one year or less, according to officials.
The writers also say that their plan would help the domestic manufacturing sector to become more competitive in international markets and protect national currency reserves.
Whatever monetary officials are preparing to help bring stability back to the market may take weeks to change market sentiment. With crude being expected to stay at $65 per barrel for months — $35 lower than the minimum price set in Iran's current budget — and the sanctions persisting for several more months, no hope is in sight for Iranian investors unless positive news comes out of the next meeting in Geneva, where nuclear negotiators will meet to resume nuclear talks.
